Non-State Actors

By Péter MARTON Having just finished Emily St. John Mandel's Station Eleven (the 2015 winner of the Arthur C. Clarke Award), a part post-apocalyptic, part pre-apocalyptic novel with (inevitably and yet mostly just implicitly) the apocalypse in its centre, here are a few quick notes, in praise as well as criticism – not as a literary review, but mainly in reaction to the plot: its plausibility and its implications. As a work of literature I really liked this book – I enjoyed it, even. It is moody and haunting, as many would say. All the characters want to be somewhere else, even some time else. The story is effectively a collection of their memories upon memories of times, places and faces past. What follows here, however, is the dirty work – the ugly analysis of probabilities and plausibilities that's more interesting from a social science vantage point. A raw take from my part. Feel free (or invited, even) to add to this, or to criticise any element of my ass...

By Péter MARTON (The source of the illustration is this video .) Elon Musk brings up a familiar point about what could potentially go wrong with AI. This is not a novel argument, but it is so clearly formulated here that really everyone should understand it: "AI doesn't have to be evil to destroy humanity – if AI has a goal and humanity just happens in the way, it will destroy humanity as a matter of course without even thinking about it, no hard feelings," Musk said. "It's just like if we're building a road and an anthill happens to be in the way, we don't hate ants, we're just building a road, and so goodbye anthill." And let's not forget that people are also perfectly capable of setting goals that result in defining other people as obstacles to be removed from the way. So it wouldn't have to be AI vs. all of humanity, even. On the other hand, if you are interested in a more enjoyable, literary take on this, ...

By Péter MARTON I am always interested in experimenting with new formats (it helps creativity). Starting today, I will occasionally offer my take here on various subjects in a two-in-one scheme. I find this to be prospectively fruitful as it helps one identify connections between seemingly unrelated issues. What follows this time is a brief consideration of the legacy as well as the future of technological change, related to stuff I have recently come across in my virtual travels over the interwebz. (Picture: an image from the movie District 9.) 1. An interesting trend to observe these days is the increasingly explicit reference to disruptive technological change as a possible threat in the yearly Worldwide Threat Assessments from the office of the US Director of National Intelligence (DNI) – and the US Intelligence Community, of course. "Cyber" is a domain discussed since a long time now, with its obviously relevant implications for (inter)national security – see th...