Non-State Actors

By Péter MARTON Annual sea level rise of one centimetre. Storms (and, increasingly, even milder winds) pushing swells of water over the island's territory. Channels created through swampland (for gas and oil companies) all around inviting salty sea water in. Soil erosion resulting, after trees die in the salinised ground and their roots no longer hold stuff together. The nearby metropolis no longer considering it a worthy investment to keep protecting the remaining little piece of land, proposing relocation instead. A few people holding out no matter what. This is what it looks like , for Isle de Jean Charles in the New Orleans area (Louisiana), and what it could look like in the future elsewhere. As Spiegel 's report concludes: If it is this difficult to move a few dozen people out of danger from rising sea levels and the other problems, then how will it be possible to do the same for much larger populations, like those living in areas of Florida at risk of f...

By Péter MARTON To answer the question in the title:* I would. Ironically, one of the best texts so far on a subject whose study originates from the Chinese context, with examples like the Human Rights Society of China in mind, is this brief paper (by Chris Carothers). A research memo, from a workshop . It is not bad for starters, though, and at least it offers a basic typology that covers "propaganda", "militant" and "development" NGOs. And some of the uses these have for autocratic and, let's say, imperfectly democratic political regimes (such as attracting funding away from genuine NGOs/civil society, or creating the semblance of mass support for government decisions, policies and entire agendas, even). This is great, but of course the political regimes in question are more creative than this. Everyone who hasn't been living under a bucket lately is probably aware of the presence of GONGOs in politics, and how that is felt in even mo...

By Péter MARTON Having just finished Emily St. John Mandel's Station Eleven (the 2015 winner of the Arthur C. Clarke Award), a part post-apocalyptic, part pre-apocalyptic novel with (inevitably and yet mostly just implicitly) the apocalypse in its centre, here are a few quick notes, in praise as well as criticism – not as a literary review, but mainly in reaction to the plot: its plausibility and its implications. As a work of literature I really liked this book – I enjoyed it, even. It is moody and haunting, as many would say. All the characters want to be somewhere else, even some time else. The story is effectively a collection of their memories upon memories of times, places and faces past. What follows here, however, is the dirty work – the ugly analysis of probabilities and plausibilities that's more interesting from a social science vantage point. A raw take from my part. Feel free (or invited, even) to add to this, or to criticise any element of my ass...

By Péter MARTON (The source of the illustration is this video .) Elon Musk brings up a familiar point about what could potentially go wrong with AI. This is not a novel argument, but it is so clearly formulated here that really everyone should understand it: "AI doesn't have to be evil to destroy humanity – if AI has a goal and humanity just happens in the way, it will destroy humanity as a matter of course without even thinking about it, no hard feelings," Musk said. "It's just like if we're building a road and an anthill happens to be in the way, we don't hate ants, we're just building a road, and so goodbye anthill." And let's not forget that people are also perfectly capable of setting goals that result in defining other people as obstacles to be removed from the way. So it wouldn't have to be AI vs. all of humanity, even. On the other hand, if you are interested in a more enjoyable, literary take on this, ...

By Péter MARTON In today's brief post I am invoking the spirit of the late scientist Carl Sagan. Citing his words, it is interesting to reflect on the implications of the ongoing bitcoin rush that may make you wonder if the bursting of the bitcoin bubble (anticipated by some) may be the worst thing that could happen. 1. You can read here from Carl Sagan , addressing the question of whether humanity should invest an effort into trying to find out about the presence or absence of alien life out there in the universe. Sagan quickly concludes that given the enormous distances in light years, interstellar monologue will in any case be more (twice as) likely than an interstellar dialogue. Even so, he ultimately comes to the conclusion that receiving a message from a superior civilisation may determine humanity's fate, for in that message one may find the answers as to how the period of "technological adolescence," with its dangers, could be survived by us. In his w...

By Péter MARTON I am always interested in experimenting with new formats (it helps creativity). Starting today, I will occasionally offer my take here on various subjects in a two-in-one scheme. I find this to be prospectively fruitful as it helps one identify connections between seemingly unrelated issues. What follows this time is a brief consideration of the legacy as well as the future of technological change, related to stuff I have recently come across in my virtual travels over the interwebz. (Picture: an image from the movie District 9.) 1. An interesting trend to observe these days is the increasingly explicit reference to disruptive technological change as a possible threat in the yearly Worldwide Threat Assessments from the office of the US Director of National Intelligence (DNI) – and the US Intelligence Community, of course. "Cyber" is a domain discussed since a long time now, with its obviously relevant implications for (inter)national security – see th...